The latest advanced weather models indicate that the UK could soon experience its hottest day on record, with a new heatwave expected to sweep across the country. This follows a week of soaring temperatures, breaking the record for the hottest June day three days in a row, reaching 37.3C on Friday.
The weather forecasting model GFS now predicts a potential new record high temperature for the UK, surpassing the current record of 40.3C set during the scorching July 2022 heatwave. The upcoming heatwave is forecasted to start on July 8, with temperatures expected to reach 35C in the south-east and around 30C in central and southern England, extending as far north as Yorkshire.
As the heatwave progresses, temperatures are projected to soar even higher. On July 9, southern England could experience highs of 37C, with parts of South Wales reaching up to 32C. By July 10, western and southern England might see temperatures peaking at 40C, with central and southern England likely to experience highs of 37C to 39C, potentially marking the warmest day ever recorded.
July 11 is anticipated to be even hotter, with western England possibly hitting 41C, while temperatures across a wide swath from Yorkshire to London could reach 40C. The heat is expected to slightly ease off by July 12, with maximum highs of 38C in the south-east, and a similar outlook for July 13, with temperatures potentially reaching 37C.
These soaring temperatures are likely to trigger an official heatwave declaration, as areas across England are forecasted to surpass the heatwave threshold of consecutive days with temperatures above 25C to 28C, depending on the region. Temperature anomaly maps show widespread areas of above-average temperatures, with 18 counties in England expected to reach 40C or higher.
The UK Met Office has highlighted a heightened probability of continued hot weather in the coming month, with the potential for “thundery showers.” The forecast from the Met Office for July 12 to 26 suggests a likelihood of settled and drier conditions, with occasional rain and thunderstorms, particularly in the northern regions.
Towards the end of July, temperatures are expected to remain above normal, with a possibility of intermittent hot conditions. The Met Office advises preparedness for varying weather patterns, with a focus on above-average temperatures throughout the period.