Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s figures by almost 50%. Approximately 20 million barrels have been transported to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data analysis.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, traditionally seen as a riskier and costlier route. However, this year, it gained favor due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea area.
With conflicts in Iran and Ukraine causing turmoil and inflation, U.S. crude oil has become less accessible to Asian refiners, prompting them to explore alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America. Consequently, tanker freight rates have surged to record levels.
Despite the high tariffs for NSR usage, which necessitates icebreaker assistance, it remains a more economical option compared to the usual route through the Red Sea to Asia, traders noted.
For Russia, the NSR offers a secure alternative to European waters, where tankers carrying its oil have faced detainment this year. Traders estimate that the volume of Russian oil exported via the Arctic route will increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by around 35% this year compared to 2025, as announced by CEO Alexander Dyukov in Moscow. Additionally, Russia is expected to increase its liquid natural gas (LNG) supply to Asia through the NSR following the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin projected that cargo turnover via the NSR would double to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The recent inauguration of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.