Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the initial half of 2026, marking an overall trade increase of 3.6% compared to the previous year, as per data analyzed by Statistics Canada. The data, featured in a fresh report from the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, reflects the renewed economic ties between the two nations. This surge is seen as part of Canada’s strategic move to diversify its economic portfolio amidst strained relations with the United States.
The total trade in goods between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion in the first half of 2026, showcasing a 3.6% rise, with exports witnessing a significant upswing of 30% to $21.74 billion year-on-year. Notably, energy and minerals dominated the exports, constituting 58.4% of all domestic exports to China during the period. Energy exports, primarily crude oil and liquefied propane, alone surged by 81.8%, while metal ores and non-metallic mineral exports, including copper ore, rose by 29%.
Bijan Ahmadi, the executive director of the Canada China Business Council, expressed, “This is a record for our first half of the year exports to China.” The recent surge is believed to be influenced by a combination of factors amidst the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Diplomatic and economic relations between Canada and China have been improving after years of tension, particularly surrounding the Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou’s arrest in 2018. Furthermore, with escalating trade disputes between Canada and the U.S., Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the nation’s commitment to forging new trade partnerships globally and reducing dependency on the U.S.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline reaching 97% capacity in June, coupled with disruptions in oil supply due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, has bolstered Canada’s oil exports to Asia. Mark Maki, CEO of Trans Mountain, predicted that Asia could account for 70% of Canada’s oil exports by 2028, emphasizing the growing market potential in the region.
The trade truce between Canada and China in 2026 saw a significant breakthrough with Chinese President Xi Jinping allowing tens of thousands of Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market in exchange for tariff suspensions on Canadian agricultural products like canola meal and peas. This agreement has positively impacted Canadian agricultural sectors, with immediate price upticks noted in canola seed sales.
Despite the overall positive trade trends, the report indicates a decline in imports from China, down by 5.8% year-on-year. This decline has narrowed Canada’s trade deficit with China, partly due to manufacturing shifting to other countries like Vietnam. The report authors highlight the need to diversify trade partnerships to ensure sustained growth in exports.
In conclusion, while Canada’s exports to China are on an upward trajectory, there is room for further expansion and diversification to capture emerging market opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. The data from the first half of 2026 indicates promising growth prospects, positioning Canada well to achieve its export targets to China by 2030 and potentially exceed them.