An amber extreme heat warning has been issued by the Met Office, forecasting temperatures to reach 34C on Monday. This hot spell follows a warm weekend where the heatwave threshold is expected to be reached in parts of southern and eastern England. Saturday will see temperatures climbing to 28C in some southern regions, increasing to 32C on Sunday.
Monday is anticipated to see temperatures soaring to 34C, with Tuesday also experiencing mid-30s temperatures. The Met Office has issued an amber extreme heat warning covering London, the east and south-east of England, as well as parts of the south-west of England and Wales on both days.
There is a 40% chance of surpassing the highest-ever June temperature of 35.6C recorded in 1957 and 1976, according to the Met Office. Some areas may witness temperatures remaining above 20C overnight on Monday and Tuesday, particularly in urban areas.
Amber heat health alerts from the UK Health Security Agency are in effect for the east, south-east, and south-west of England, along with London, until 8pm on Tuesday. Greg Wolverson, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office, mentioned that while heatwave criteria will be met in the south and south-east of England over the weekend, temperatures could rise into the low 30s, intensifying at the beginning of the next week. This, combined with high overnight temperatures, could lead to potential impacts.
Peak temperatures around the mid-30s are expected on Monday and Tuesday, accompanied by high humidity making it feel even warmer and more uncomfortable for many. Tropical nights, where temperatures do not drop below 20C, are also probable for some regions.
The upcoming hot spell may bring isolated thundery downpours on Monday and Tuesday, as per the Met Office. This forecast aligns with the Met Office’s three-month summer outlook predicting a higher chance of a hot summer than usual, with potential heatwave conditions developing at times.
England and Wales recently experienced their warmest spring on record, with the UK registering its hottest May temperature to date at 35.1C in London’s Kew Gardens. Unfortunately, at least 15 fatalities were reported due to incidents in open water during the heatwave.
Samantha Hughes, national water safety partner at the Royal National Lifeboat Institution, emphasized the importance of being cautious as warmer weather approaches. She highlighted the risk of cold water shock from entering cold water unexpectedly, causing a sudden increase in breathing and heart rate, potentially leading to panic.
A climate attribution study conducted by Met Office scientists last summer revealed that the likelihood of surpassing temperature records has significantly increased due to the climate crisis. Breaking previous temperature records is now around three times more likely in today’s climate affected by greenhouse gas emissions than in a natural climate. This shift has transformed what was once considered a rare event into a more frequent occurrence, estimated to happen approximately once every 33 years.