The El Niño weather pattern is anticipated to strengthen further until 2027, potentially becoming the most potent occurrence on record, heightening the likelihood of severe weather events in the upcoming year, as stated by the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday.
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned in a news briefing in Geneva that if the current trend continues, it could surpass any El Niño event monitored in the last four decades, signifying an unprecedented level of intensity.
The UN weather agency’s projections indicate an almost certain persistence of El Niño until February 2027, driven by remarkably warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty in the forecast is a first according to the WMO.
A robust El Niño has the potential to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, amplifying the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena like typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized, “El Niño is undergoing a significant intensification. Scientific evidence unequivocally indicates that the planet is entering uncharted territories with rising temperatures.”
El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds. It naturally occurs every two to seven years, typically lasting up to 12 months and leading to severe rainfall and drought patterns across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food shortage crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO noted that the El Niño is projected to peak towards the end of this year but will continue to affect conditions into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures next year, as per Saulo.
Saulo emphasized that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning systems to address the potential repercussions of the El Niño event.
“We are dedicated to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian organizations to offer the necessary climate intelligence and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” she stated.
[WATCH: What a ‘super’ El Niño means for you]
Some climate models are predicting a strong El Niño year in 2026. CBC’s Nick Logan provides an overview of the implications and expectations for Canadians regarding the potential impact of this powerful weather phenomenon.