Andy Burnham secured a resounding victory in the Makerfield constituency, triumphing with over 9,000 votes. This landslide win significantly boosted Labour’s lead while relegating Reform to a distant second place.
Despite speculation about the influence of Rupert Lowe’s far-right Restore party in diminishing Reform’s support, Burnham garnered more votes than all his rivals combined. This emphatic triumph marks a pivotal moment for the former Mayor of Greater Manchester, propelling him back to the Commons where he is set to challenge Keir Starmer for leadership and demonstrate the viability of his political strategy.
Although Makerfield has traditionally been a stronghold for Labour, Reform made significant gains in the recent local council elections. The victory was hard-fought, especially amidst the challenging political climate and the declining popularity of the government and Prime Minister.
Burnham’s commanding win, particularly the substantial margin of victory, positions him as a formidable contender capable of defeating Reform and Farage across various constituencies, mirroring his success in Makerfield. This achievement is likely to be a cornerstone of his future campaign for the prime ministerial role.
While skeptics highlight that a by-election is not indicative of a general election outcome, Burnham’s popularity in Greater Manchester undoubtedly played a significant role. However, doubts remain about his ability to replicate this success in different regions such as Grimsby or Great Yarmouth.
The overwhelming defeat of Reform and Burnham’s appeal to progressive voters offer a glimmer of hope for disheartened Labour MPs, who have been grappling with negativity towards Starmer and the government. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister remains defiant, emphasizing his mandate and expressing private frustration with Burnham’s conduct.
Behind the scenes, preparations are underway for a potential leadership challenge, with allies mobilizing resources and strategizing for Starmer’s campaign. As tensions escalate, Burnham’s camp aims to avert a divisive leadership contest, urging the Prime Minister to consider stepping down. However, Starmer is unlikely to relinquish power unless compelled by his Cabinet and fellow MPs.
The political landscape remains uncertain, with figures like Wes Streeting eyeing leadership roles and the possibility of unexpected contenders emerging. As both Labour and Reform engage in introspection following successive by-election losses, Farage’s ambitions of becoming Prime Minister appear less certain than before.