The United Nations has issued a warning that the world should brace for the return of El Niño, which is expected to significantly raise temperatures in the upcoming weeks. El Niño, a potent weather phenomenon known for elevating global temperatures and decreasing rainfall, has an 80% likelihood of occurring before September and a 90% chance of persisting until November, according to The World Meteorological Organization.
Several national weather agencies have forecasted that the upcoming El Niño event could be one of the most intense on record, potentially leading to a “super” El Niño with unprecedented heat levels. While the impact of El Niño in the UK is typically milder, it can result in extreme weather conditions, such as colder winter temperatures and soaring summer heat. The current heatwave being experienced may just be the beginning of what is to come.
Professor Bill McGuire, an expert in geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, anticipates that El Niño could affect summer temperatures, possibly as soon as this year but more likely next year, as global warming intensifies. He predicts that temperatures could surpass 40 degrees Celsius.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgency of addressing the threat posed by El Niño, describing it as a critical climate warning. He warned that El Niño conditions will exacerbate the challenges of a warming planet, causing severe impacts that transcend borders rapidly.
The previous El Niño event in 2023-24 was among the five most powerful recorded and contributed to a scorching summer that shattered global temperature records. Despite the extreme heatwave experienced in 2024, experts believe that the upcoming El Niño could be even more severe.
Professor Adam Scaife, who leads monthly to decadal predictions at the UK Met Office, expressed confidence in the prediction of a significant El Niño event, possibly breaking records. He anticipates that this event could be unprecedented in its intensity.