Tourists enjoying popular destinations worldwide may face extreme heat challenges as El Nino poses a threat to travelers exploring cities.
A recent study revealed that numerous cities, including top tourist hubs like Bangkok, are susceptible to significant temperature increases due to the impact of El Nino. Researchers from the University of Oxford assessed 220 major cities globally to determine their vulnerability and ability to cope with such temperature shocks.
Findings indicate that approximately 95% of the most at-risk cities are located in South and Southeast Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa. Lead author Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam emphasized that beyond exposure to high temperatures, factors like vulnerability and limited coping mechanisms in urban areas play a crucial role in increasing heat-related risks.
The study underscores the necessity for comprehensive global assessments of heat risks to understand the various ways urban areas are affected. Particularly in Asia and Africa, where extreme heat coincides with high vulnerability and limited coping capacities, the combination can pose life-threatening consequences.
El Nino’s arrival is expected to bring about extreme heat, potentially becoming one of the most perilous threats worldwide. Published in Sustainable Cities and Societies, the study highlights the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, leading to excess mortality, infrastructure failures, and economic losses in cities globally.
With more than half of the world’s population residing in cities currently and projections indicating a rise to two-thirds by 2050, cities are becoming critical focal points for climate impacts. The researchers ranked 220 cities with populations exceeding one million based on various risk factors, including demographic and socioeconomic conditions.
Fortunately, cities in the UK were found to be at lower risk, with London identified as the least vulnerable among those analyzed. In contrast, cities in South and Southeast Asia, as well as sub-Saharan Africa, dominated the list of most at-risk urban areas.
Co-author Jesus Lizana emphasized the significance of this study as the first globally harmonized assessment of urban heat risk across cities worldwide. The findings provide a valuable tool to identify areas needing urgent adaptation efforts, with the potential for future iterations to monitor climate adaptation progress and urban heat resilience globally.